A flat month for personal new automobile gross sales in October

Private new car sales continued to struggle in October, a scant 0.3% up on the same month last year, according to latest data published this morning by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

As cost-of-living pressures and high interest rates continue to squeeze household budgets, consumer new car spending is failing to keep pace with the growth in fleet purchasing. While private new car sales were flat in October, fleet registrations were up by 29%, meaning that the overall new car market was up by 14% on the same month last year.

October is a month that has fluctuated significantly over the last five years, and this year’s overall result is the best since 2017 – well before the Covid-19 pandemic. And that’s despite zero growth in private new car sales, which shows just how strong fleet sales were last month.

New car registrations by buyer type – October

Year to date

Consumers still avoiding new EVs

On the surface, it looked like a good month for electric cars, with sales up by 20% over the same month last year. But market share of less than 16% is lower than the year-to-date average, causing headaches for the car industry. Starting in January, they have to sell at least 22% EVs, which means a 40% increase on October’s market share.

The SMMT claims that less than 25% of EV sales this year have been to private buyers. Some quick maths based on the published numbers suggests that this equates to only about 9% of consumers who have bought EVs this year. For fleet buyers, it’s a very different story. Based on fleet customers making up at least 75% of EV sales, that puts EV market share at more than 23% for fleets – already exceeding next year’s targets.

So if car companies want to hit their mandated EV targets for 2024, it’s clear that they need to convince a lot more consumers to switch to electric power.

In the meantime, plug-in hybrid sales continue to creep upwards, a trend that has been developing over the last few months. Whether or not this is from people moving away from diesel (large SUVs are a good example, where there are few EV options but quite a few plug-in hybrids), or from people who are hesitant about going all-in on a switch from petrol to electric power, remains to be seen.

New car registrations by fuel type – October

*includes mild hybrids
Source: SMMT

New car registrations by fuel type – Year to date

*includes mild hybrids
Source: SMMT

Good month, bad month

Despite overall market growth of more than 14%, it wasn’t champagne and caviars for car companies in October. Some brands saw significantly less growth than the market average, while others saw sales fall dramatically.

In terms of good news, it was a strong month for Cupra, Genesis, GWM Ora, Jaguar, Jeep, Land Rover, Lexus, Maserati, MG, Peugeot, Porsche, Renault, SEAT, Skoda, Smart, Suzuki, Tesla and Volvo. All of these brands overachieved against the overall market by at least 10%.

Not so happy, however, were Abarth, Bentley, Citroën, Dacia, DS Automobiles, Fiat, Ford, Honda, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Polestar, SsangYong, Subaru, Toyota and Volkswagen. All of these companies underachieved against the overall market by at least 10% (which means growth of less than 4% and, in some cases, significant falls)

That means that the following brands were more or less where we expected them to be in October: Alfa Romeo, Alpine, Audi, BMW, Hyundai, Kia, Mini and Vauxhall.

In absolute terms, Tesla had the largest growth. This October, it registered nearly 2,700 new cars. Last October, it registered 11. No, that’s not a typo.

At the other end of the scale, Fiat registered nearly 1,500 fewer cars this October than it did last year – a fall of 57% in a market that was up 14%.

In overall sales, Volkswagen continued to lead the market, just ahead of sister brand Audi. Ford placed third, ahead of BMW and Vauxhall.

Ford Puma locks in sales crown with another month on top

With just two months to run until the end of 2023, the Ford Puma has opened up a commanding lead at the top of the sales charts. Last year’s (and last month’s) best-selling new car, the Nissan Qashqai, had a slow month in October and didn’t even make the top ten.

In fact, the race for second place is very close between the Qashqai and the Vauxhall Corsa, while the Kia Sportage overtook the Tesla Model Y for fourth place. And on a sad final note, the now-discontinued Ford Fiesta has finally slipped off the bottom of the top ten sales charts forever, with the Audi A3 now in tenth place after a strong performance in October.

We’ll have our usual monthly analysis of the top ten tomorrow.