American Airlines, JetBlue and Southwest Airlines this week each released new fourth-quarter guidance metrics. Most of the changes indicated performance improvements.
American projects its Q4 total revenue per available seat mile to be flat to up 1 percent year over year, compared with Oct. 24 guidance that it would decline 1 percent to 3 percent, according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing. The carrier on Thursday also announced that it had entered into an exclusive co-branded credit card program in the U.S. with Citigroup, scheduled to begin in January 2026.
JetBlue on Wednesday reported that booking performance for travel in November and December was higher than expected following the U.S. presidential election, and as a result, the “fourth-quarter revenue headwind from the election now is estimated to be 0.5 points” versus the previous forecast of 1 percentage point, according to an SEC filing. In addition, for travel in December, in-quarter bookings have exceeded prior expectations in both peak and off-peak periods.
JetBlue now projects fourth-quarter capacity to decline 4.5 percent to 6.5 percent year over year compared with a previously forecast decline of 4 percent to 7 percent. Full-year capacity now is estimated to be down 3 percent to 4 percent from 2023 versus prior guidance of down 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent. Revenue for the quarter now is projected to decline 2 percent to 5 percent year over year, compared with JetBlue’s previous estimate of a 3 percent to 7 percent drop. Full-year revenue now is projected to decline 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent year over year versus a previously forecast decline of 4 percent to 5 percent.
JetBlue’s fuel price per gallon is projected to be $2.40 to $2.50 for the quarter, down from a prior estimate of $2.50 to $2.65, and for the year is projected to be $2.73 to $2.76 versus its prior guidance of $2.75 to $2.80.
Southwest now projects fourth-quarter unit revenue to increase 5.5 percent to 7 percent year over year compared with prior guidance of up 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent. Capacity, however, now is estimated to decline 4 percent versus Q4 2023, whereas previously there was no change expected. Estimated fuel costs for the quarter increased to $2.35 to $2.45 per gallon compared with prior guidance of $2.25 to $2.35 per gallon.
Delta Air Lines did not provide updated fourth-quarter guidance this week, however it did release preliminary estimates for 2025, including capacity growth of 3 percent to 4 percent year over year and revenue growth of mid-single digits versus 2024.
