Could Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines eventually merge, after all?
“That’s my prediction,” the CEO of a competing low-cost airline told TPG.
Talks have swirled for years about the possibility of the nation’s two leading budget carriers joining forces.
Spirit and Frontier explored merging in 2022, but Spirit backed out of the talks to instead pursue a marriage with JetBlue — a deal ultimately blocked in court by the Biden administration.
Then, late last year, The Wall Street Journal reported that the airlines had reignited acquisition talks. However, the deal reportedly fell apart days before Spirit announced it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Spirit’s financial turmoil — owed to mounting debt, sagging revenue and a myriad of other factors — came in the midst of a tumultuous run for budget airlines overall.
A tougher landscape for budget airlines
In recent years, the lower-cost end of the U.S. airline sector has lost ground to the larger “legacy” carriers, which boast the long-haul international routes scores of travelers are craving right now. Not to mention, larger carriers offer amenities like premium cabins, lie-flat seats and those highly lucrative frequent flyer and credit card programs that have played an outsize role in profitability since the coronavirus pandemic.
Some in the industry — United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, most vociferously — have predicted the demise of some budget airlines, particularly Frontier and Spirit. These carriers have long been known for offering ultra-low base fares but adding on charges for most other inflight services.
In a wide-ranging interview last month with TPG, fellow low-cost airline executive David Neeleman, CEO of Breeze Airways, offered his own take.
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“I think Spirit and Frontier will survive,” Neeleman said. “But, I think it’d be a lot easier if they’d merge. If they become one.”
Asked if he’d outright predict a future merger between the two carriers, Neeleman didn’t mince words: “Yes,” he said.
Both airlines have repeatedly declined to comment on any lingering merger or acquisition talks. It may also be worth noting that the incoming Trump administration is widely expected to take a less stringent regulatory posture than the administration before it, perhaps encouraging another attempt at consolidation.
Low-cost airlines eye premium offerings
Either way, Neeleman said he generally agrees with a blunt assessment United’s Kirby has made about the state of the U.S. airline industry — namely, about the Chicago-based carrier’s advantage over budget carriers (of which Breeze is one).
Repeatedly in 2024, Kirby asserted United’s “structural, permanent and irreversible” advantage in the industry — along with that of Delta Air Lines.
Now that major carriers have mostly eliminated change fees and have added their own types of cheap, no-frills basic economy fares, Kirby and others have questioned why travelers would opt for a budget carrier if a similar fare is available on a full-service carrier.
Other budget airline executives have dismissed predictions of the industry’s demise.
“That’s funny,” Frontier CEO Barry Biffle said sarcastically, addressing the claim in an interview with TPG last month.
But Neeleman offered a slightly different take.
“Scott [Kirby] has figured out a way to get people on United the same thing they’re getting on Spirit, knowing that nobody would pick to fly Spirit if they can come and fly United,” Neeleman said.
“If you get on a United Airlines [Boeing 737] MAX 9 [jet] today, it’s perfectly configured for what people want,” Neeleman continued, noting United’s offerings that range from first class to extra legroom to a bare-bones option.
It’s a wider menu of features that travelers can also find at Delta and American Airlines. Such a variety is also in the works at a fast-growing list of budget carriers: Frontier announced new first-class-style seats in December, Southwest has new extra-legroom rows planned for 2026 and JetBlue plans to add a domestic first-class cabin. (Neeleman is perhaps best known in the U.S. for founding JetBlue back in 2000).
Breeze sees opportunity
Today, Neeleman thinks travelers’ shifting preferences — namely, a craving for extra-space rows, premium seats and overall more choices — bode well for his latest startup, Breeze. The airline launched in 2021 at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
Since its launch, the Utah-based airline has offered free bags, Wi-Fi service and first-class-esque recliners for passengers who select its “Nicest” fares. These fares are an alternative to classic budget airline stripped-down fares (“Nice”) for those bargain shoppers.
“When I go against those guys,” Neeleman said of Spirit and Frontier, “we do really well. Because people want to fly Breeze.”
Of course, his airline could find more competition in the coming years, as travelers increasingly find extra-space options on more and more low-cost airlines’ planes. This is a key reason Breeze is “really seriously considering” upping the number of “Nicest” seats on board its Airbus A220s, Neeleman said.
“We started with 24 [first-class seats on board] and we went to 12, and I think we’re really seriously considering going back to 16 because there’s so much demand,” he said, noting the airline can reconfigure its planes “overnight” to make such changes.
International flights on the horizon
But what about international service?
Last time I spoke with Neeleman, about eight months ago, he teased an upcoming international expansion tied into major long-term growth plans at Providence’s Rhode Island T. F. Green International Airport (PVD).
In fact, Breeze’s fellow startup airline, Avelo — which also launched in 2021 — beat it to the punch with new Mexico, Jamaica and Dominican Republic service from Hartford’s Bradley International Airport (BDL) and North Carolina’s Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU). BDL and RDU are airports where the two newcomer airlines have focused outsize attention.
Neeleman cited delays in Federal Aviation Administration approvals that would allow Breeze to fly its aircraft internationally. That process should wrap up by the end of March, he told TPG.
“And then we can do Hawaii, kind of North Atlantic — mainly just to the British Isles, and to Ireland. Places like that,” he said.
Up first, though?
“Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, those kinds of things,” he said.
Breeze currently offers 280 nonstop flights — and it has no competition on 86% of them, the carrier noted this month.
Its growth is expected to continue in 2025. According to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium, its number of seats in the first half of this year is set to rise about 49% over the same period last year.
Whether that focus is on international or domestic flights, or on economy or premium cabins remains to be seen amid a historic shift in traveler preferences. Stay tuned.
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