Rather than our typical backyard barbecue and sparklers, my family decided to spend the Fourth of July at Walt Disney World. And contrary to what you may have read in recent headlines, it was certainly not a “ghost town.”
Just like during any major holiday at the Central Florida theme park, we were packed in tightly for the fireworks show, and wait times at the Magic Kingdom surpassed the 60-minute mark for popular attractions like Peter Pan’s Flight and Seven Dwarfs Mine Train. And even before I even stepped through the gates that morning, theme park reservations for Magic Kingdom were sold out for the day.
Related: Disney World making changes to simplify visits and bringing back a fan-favorite perk
However, it is also true that some parts of the Walt Disney World complex were not as crowded as we had expected.
For example, on July 4, we park-hopped to Hollywood Studios before the fireworks, and it was noticeably less crowded than what I’m used to on a typical summer day. Wait times were some of the lowest I’ve seen during regular operating hours, and the streets, while not empty, were much easier to navigate than on most busy summer days.
But an afternoon of not having to dodge as heavy of crowds as we expected while pushing a stroller through Hollywood Studios before returning to a quite-busy evening at Magic Kingdom does not a ghost town make.
Telling people that Disney crowds are dwindling certainly makes for a snazzy headline, but based on my experience of being at Disney on the day in question and my habit of checking wait times even when I am at home, there is more to this story.
No, Disney World is not a ghost town
While I’d personally enjoy a crowd-free summer at Disney World, that’s not quite the case.
This year, July 4 fell on a Tuesday. It was one of the hottest Independence Days on recent record, with a high of 95 degrees and humidity levels as high as 87% in the Orlando area, according to Time and Date. Contrast that with the average high of 92 degrees and average humidity of 73%, and you’ve got a recipe for would-be guests staying at home or by the swimming pool rather than in a sweltering theme park.
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While I was thrilled to see a less-than-30-minute wait for attractions in Galaxy’s Edge, this one-day anomaly appears to be a blip on the radar. A quick glance at the My Disney Experience app on the morning of July 17 shows that Disney has posted a 90-minute wait for Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run and a 105-minute wait for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance.
So whatever led to unseasonably low waits on July 4 at that park isn’t holding nearly as true a couple of weeks later — but that’s not to say there aren’t some changes in attendance patterns.
Wait times were lower across Disney World’s four theme parks on July 4 this year than in the previous eight years (excluding 2020, when the parks were closed due to COVID-19), according to Thrill Data, a site that tracks theme park wait times. But, if you look at other recent dates, the wait times are still holding slightly less than in recent years but notably more in line with the pre-pandemic averages.
The below screenshot shows average wait times July 9 between 2014 and 2023. The black line shows this year’s wait times.
This is something that Disney itself predicted prior to the typically busy summer season.
During The Walt Disney Company’s second-quarter fiscal earnings presentation on May 10, 2023, then-chief financial officer Christine McCarthy told investors, “In the back half of this fiscal year, there will be an unfavorable comparison against the prior year’s incredibly successful 50th anniversary celebration at Walt Disney World. We typically see some moderation in demand as we lap these types of events, and third-quarter-to-date performance has been in line with those historical trends.”
Visitors have noticed some of the shifts, as well.
Matt Roseboom, editor and publisher at Attractions Magazine, lives in the Orlando area and visits the parks often. He has noticed that all of Orlando’s theme parks are “a bit less crowded this summer,” though he wouldn’t call them “uncrowded” by any means. He attributes the decline to a lack of big new attractions.
Despite Tron Lightcyle / Run recently opening at Disney World and Minion Land being almost complete at Universal Orlando Resort, Roseboom noted that one-off attractions “just don’t bring the crowds like a full ‘Star Wars’ or ‘Harry Potter’ land would.”
And while many factors may be contributing to attendance levels perhaps heading back to a more historically normal pattern, the downshift isn’t unique to Walt Disney World.
Related: New attractions coming to Disney World in 2023
Other Orlando theme parks are following a similar pattern
Thrill Data’s data shows wait times are lower than in recent years at other theme parks, as well. For example, Universal Orlando’s wait times on July 9, 2023, were lower than on that date in 2019, 2021 and 2022 (the park had only recently reopened and was operating at limited capacity in 2020).
Many people point to Disney’s current ticket and hotel deals (which can save you quite a bit of money, by the way) as evidence the park is struggling to bring in guests. And while it may certainly be true that incentives are back as a way to create additional demand, Disney’s not unique there as other area theme parks are offering similarly lucrative offers.
At Universal Orlando, you can get three days free with a two-park, two-day ticket, and during SeaWorld’s summer sale, you can save up to 45% on ticket prices.
There may be an overall shift in tourism
When looking at why wait times for rides (and thus, estimations about attendance levels) may be inching back to historical norms, it’s potentially important to consider that Florida was one of the first states to reopen after tourism all but shut down in March 2020 as a precaution against COVID-19. Disney World closed its four Florida theme parks on March 16, 2020, and began a phased reopening several months later on July 11, 2020.
Pent-up demand for Disney may be on the decline
Because Florida welcomed tourists so soon into the pandemic when many other tourist destinations were shuttered for months and even years longer than Disney World, people who had their hearts set on a sunny vacation flocked to the Sunshine State and its world-class theme parks.
At this point, those travelers have likely gotten that “Disney itch” out of their system. “I do think that the surge of people waiting for their Orlando vacation has passed and they are going elsewhere,” Roseboom said. “Many people will always make Orlando their go-to vacation, but during and just after the pandemic, Orlando was an easy visit for most Americans.”
This downward trend applies to Central Florida and beyond, not just Disney, and the numbers support the anecdotal evidence that local residents like Roseboom are observing. According to Florida tourism tax data, travel is down this year in a number of Florida counties. Tourist Development Tax collections in Orange County, where Disney World, Universal Orlando and SeaWorld are located, saw a 6.7% decrease in May 2023 versus May 2022. Hotel occupancy in the county was also down 2.5% in May 2023 versus the same month in 2022.
The nearby St. Petersburg-Clearwater area saw a 3% decrease in TDT for May 2023 versus May 2022. Volusia County saw an even bigger drop of 8.89% in TDT between April 2022 and April 2023.
This downward trend has not gone unnoticed by Disney. In a recent interview with CNBC, Bob Iger, CEO of The Walt Disney Company, told CNBC, “Disney opened up early during COVID … it created a huge demand and [Disney] didn’t have competition because there were a number of other states that weren’t open yet … there’s a lot more competition today.”
International travel and cruising are on the rise
So if people aren’t going to Central Florida, where are they going? Now that the world is essentially their oyster, travelers appear to be spreading their wings and heading for more far-flung destinations.
“The big story of the summer is really Americans flocking to Europe for those that can afford it,” Phillip Ballard, the chief communications officer of HotelPlanner.com, recently shared with TPG senior hotels reporter Cameron Spearance in a story about summer travel pricing trends. “There’s finally enough travel confidence that Americans have saved up enough money that now is the time to go to Paris or Rome,” he added.
AAA booking data backs up Ballard’s position. According to AAA, international travel is up more than 200% compared to 2022, and international hotel bookings are up more than 300%.
The cruise industry, which was slow to reopen due to many destinations banning cruise ships, is also seeing a surge in popularity. In late 2022, TPG reported that executives from many of the world’s top cruise lines predicted their ships would be filled to capacity by mid-2023.
AAA data also shows that travelers’ confidence in cruising is on the rise. A recent AAA survey found that “52% of U.S. adults are just as likely or more likely to consider taking a cruise vacation as they were before the pandemic.” That number is up from 45% in 2022.
Related: The most magical way to experience Disney right now may be at sea
Florida’s political landscape likely doesn’t help
Here in 2023, you probably can’t have a complete discussion about tourism in Florida without addressing the state’s politics.
In 2022, a yearlong feud was set off between Disney and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis when Disney spoke out in opposition to the state’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill. Shortly thereafter, DeSantis attempted to revoke Disney’s self-governing privileges by dismantling the Reedy Creek Improvement District and installed a hand-picked board of those with a history of supporting the governor to oversee Disney’s government services.
Related: What it was like attending Disneyland’s 1st official Pride event
The two parties are currently embroiled in a legal battle over the case, and in the meantime, DeSantis has continued to show support for the exclusionary “Don’t Say Gay” legislation and similar laws, including a statewide abortion ban, a ban on gender-affirming care and a law barring school staff members and students from being required to refer to others by their chosen pronouns, according to PBS.
Despite DeSantis’ stance against Disney and its “woke ideologies,” the theme park giant hasn’t backed down. In the same previously mentioned CNBC interview, Iger said, “We’re concerned that [DeSantis] has decided to retaliate against the company for a position the company took on pending legislation in [Florida] … to retaliate against the company in a way that would be harmful against the business is not something we could tolerate.”
It’s too soon to tell if the numbers will bear out a decline in attendance due to people staying away from Disney because of the company’s political stance, but a quick scroll of Disney-related hashtags that I prefer not to link to show that some loud voices are vociferously boycotting the company.
On the other side of this coin, the political polarization in Florida has caused some organizations to warn travelers to take their business elsewhere.
The NAACP said in a recent statement that “Florida is openly hostile toward African Americans, people of color and LGBTQ+ individuals. Before traveling to Florida, please understand that the state of Florida devalues and marginalizes the contributions of, and the challenges faced by African Americans and other communities of color.”
In addition to the NAACP, the Human Rights Campaign, the League of United Latin American Citizens, the Florida Immigrant Coalition and Equality Florida have all issued travel or relocation warnings for Florida.
What can you expect during your summertime Disney World vacation?
It’s apparent Disney is neither dead nor at maximum capacity, so what can you expect from a Disney vacation this summer? About the same as any other year: hot and humid days, an afternoon storm that somehow cools things off but also makes the air more humid, and long standby waits.
As I write this, on a Monday morning in mid-July, multiple waits are posted at well over the hour mark, currently topping out at 105 minutes for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance. Slinky Dog Dash is posted at 85 minutes, The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror is posted at 90 minutes, Avatar Flight of Passage is at 130 minutes and Seven Dwarfs Mine Train is at 75 minutes, to name a few.
Of course, you could get lucky and visit on a day that is a bit less busy than expected, and you can always mitigate your time spent in line — and in the blazing sun — with the purchase of Disney Genie+. But in either case, don’t pull up to the gates of the Most Magical Place on Earth expecting to encounter very short waits, as some recent headlines may have led you to believe.
That said, there is a potential shift in where people are spending their PTO underway, but it’s currently at a level that is generally much more subtle than the surprisingly short 30-minute waits at Hollywood Studios on July 4. The evidence currently suggests slightly lower-than-normal crowds at Disney this summer compared to the last few years and a return to a more pre-pandemic level of busy. But that still means you’re still likely to come face-to-face with one-to-two-hour waits for top attractions, so pack a travel-friendly fan and brush up on our tips for making the most of a trip to Disney World.
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