It’s the most wonderful time of the year … for airfare.
Autumn “shoulder season” is here. That means lower flight prices as the crowds taper off in the wake of summer before returning for the busy holiday rush.
The season started in August, as earlier school start dates helped thin out congestion on airport concourses. Transportation Security Agency checkpoints saw about 5% fewer passengers in August than in July — a refreshing bit of (relative) calm after a summer that brought the 10 busiest days ever at U.S. airports.
That trend should continue into the fall months, bringing lower fares with it.
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How expensive is airfare right now?
September domestic round-trip airfare is trending about 8% below 2023 levels, according to booking app Hopper. In October, prices are down about 7%, year over year.
This is despite airlines’ best efforts to shift route networks and flight frequencies in hopes of disrupting a downward shift in fares. It’s a trend that has hurt carriers’ profitability all year amid a glut of domestic flight offerings.
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Between September and November, the total number of seats airlines will offer on domestic flights is up a modest 2.5% over last year, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.
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It’s up even though several airlines are slashing late-year flying. For example, budget carrier Frontier Airlines is eliminating scores of flights on low-demand days like Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
The carrier predicted that its moves — along with those of Southwest Airlines, JetBlue and others — would help fuel fare increases in the late-summer and early-fall months.
“More likely … I think we’re going to see prices continue to dip where we are now — and stay low, because it’s the shoulder season, demand could be low,” countered Hayley Berg, Hopper’s lead economist.
Here’s what to know if you’re thinking of taking advantage of deals and booking a fall getaway.
How early should I book a flight?
Google Flights is seeing domestic fares at their lowest about 38 days before departure. The ideal booking range is 21 to 52 days before takeoff.
Translation: If you’re thinking of a mid-October getaway to catch fall foliage, now would be a good time to get serious about booking.
Read more: The best time to book flights for the cheapest airfare in 2024
If you’re flying internationally, book as early as possible. The “sweet spot,” these days, is about 101 days ahead of takeoff. However, you’ll want to look at least 50 days in advance for the lowest price.
Fifty days from now puts you in the vicinity of a late-October or early-November trip.
Book a trip for a Tuesday, Wednesday or Saturday
Those midweek days are often the least crowded at airports, airlines consistently say.
Look no further than the almost deafening calm I found on a recent Wednesday morning at Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU).
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Flying on a Friday or a Sunday? That’s a very different story.
If you have to fly on a weekend day, Saturday is routinely one of the cheapest — and quietest — days of the entire week.
Hop on the postsummer Europe bandwagon
Though we’ve mostly talked about lower demand during the fall months, airlines have taken notice of a somewhat paradoxical trend: More and more travelers are opting to fly to Europe during the supposed “off-peak months.”
“We are really seeing an extension into September and October, and really into November, that European demand across the board is remaining strong,” Delta Air Lines president Glen Hauenstein told financial analysts in July. “It’s actually a better time to go to Europe in September and October than it is potentially in July and August, when the weather is so hot, and everything is so packed.”
Southern Europe popular in fall
This is especially true in southern Europe. This fall, Delta, American Airlines and United Airlines will offer 55% more seats to Italy than they did in 2019, for instance, Cirium data shows.
Airlines across the board will fly with 45% more seats to Portugal this fall than five years ago.
How expensive are Europe flights?
Flight prices to many European cities are trending lower. According to FCM Travel and Corporate Traveler — the flagship business travel divisions of Flight Centre Travel Group — data shows a nearly 20% drop in fares to France in recent months and around an 18% drop in fares to the U.K., year over year.
Don’t forget about your points and miles
The fact that so many airlines have ditched award charts is, by and large, not a positive development for consumers. It is perhaps among the tactics that have caught the U.S. Department of Transportation’s attention.
However, dynamic award pricing can work in your favor when demand is low and prices are low. Points pricing is more closely tied to the algorithmic forces that drive cash prices.
For that reason, certainly consider using your points and miles.
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At the same time, you may want to consider using cash to book a flight and miles to upgrade to a business-class seat on a long-haul flight. Or, consider using your points on a high-value hotel redemption, such as with World of Hyatt. (You can transfer Chase Ultimate Rewards and Bilt Rewards points to Hyatt at a 1:1 rate.)
Hotel prices have remained steady or even higher than last year, of late.
Start looking at the holidays
We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the looming holiday season, when airport crowds are sure to ramp back up.
Google Flights suggests booking your Thanksgiving flights by early October and your Christmas and New Year’s flights no later than than second half of October.
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