May global air demand continued its recovery and approached pre-pandemic traffic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Total May traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, increased 39.1 percent year over year and was at 96.1 percent of May 2019 levels. Capacity was up 35 percent year over year. Industry load factor was up 2.4 percentage points versus May 2022 to reach 81.8 percent, led by North American carriers at 86.3 percent and followed by European carriers at 84.8 percent.
May international traffic increased 40.9 percent year over year and reached 90.8 percent of May 2019 levels. North America and the Middle East each exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Domestic traffic was up 36.4 percent versus May 2022 and was 5.3 percent above May 2019 levels. This was the second month in a row where domestic demand outstripped pre-pandemic demand.
“We saw more good news in May. Planes were full,” IATA director general Willie Walsh said in a statement.
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May international capacity increased 34.7 percent year over year, with passenger load factor up 3.6 percentage points to 82.3 percent. Asia-Pacific once again led the traffic increase for international regions, gaining 156.7 percent year over year. North American traffic was up 31 percent versus May 2022 with capacity up 23.2 percent. The load factor rose 5.1 percentage points to 85.1 percent, the highest among the regions. The Middle East reported the highest traffic recovery level at 17.2 percent above levels from a year prior.
Domestic capacity increased 35.3 percent versus May 2022, with passenger load factor up 0.6 percent to 81 percent. China continued its strong recovery after removing travel restrictions with demand up 312 percent year over year. Japan showed the next highest increase with traffic up 39 percent compared with a year prior. Only Australia and Japan remain slightly below pre-pandemic domestic traffic levels.
“The strong demand for travel is one element supporting a return to profitability by airlines,” Walsh said, citing IATA’s recent profitability forecast and noting that IATA estimated European airlines made $4.1 billion in profit in 2022. However, he questioned aviation’s “unbalanced value chain. … The latest indication came last week as European airports announced a €6.4 billion (US$7 billion) collective profit in 2022. … Is airport economic regulation effectively defending the public interest when a monopoly supplier (airports) can generate seemingly much healthier returns than the competitive businesses (airlines) they supply? Governments should at least take a look.”
