INTRO RANT
You wanna know what really bothers me?? Although, it’s actually more humorous than upsetting.
Car company commercials showing SUVs traversing rugged off road terrain! I am sorry Hyundai, ABSOLUTELY NO ONE is taking their new Hyundai Santa Fe up a dirt road mountain pass!
What is the point in suggesting this? Not only is off-roading in a Santa Fe not ideal, it’s also not safe!
Thanks for allowing me to get that off my chest.
With that said, I truly believe in the utilitarian purpose of vehicles. I have talked a lot about this in the last few years. I truly believe that different vehicles are built for a specific purpose and buying a vehicle for a specific purpose. We have this clearly in our family: Mrs. Wheeled has a Tesla for commuting, we have a Suburban that can haul our six kids and we have a built straight-axle Jeep for extreme offroading. We bought each for a specific function it provides.
So I get it when Ford released the IFS Ford Bronco. I think they did great in their due diligence in researching the buyer market when they made the decision to go IFS instead of straight axle. I wonder how many people actually go off-road in their Jeep, Bronco, Tacoma, or 4Runner? I would guess that it is in the 10% range. And the percentage of people who do a moderate to difficult trail like Gold Mountain or John Bull are probably in the 1% of all 4×4 equipped vehicles. For the extreme rock crawling a straight axle is superior, but for 99% of the buyer market, a straight axle is just not needed.
This summer we had the opportunity to drive the Ford Bronco and were surprised at how comfortable of a drive the stock Sasquatch package was. You can see a little of our day on our YouTube video review here. Incredibly comfortable and easy to drive. We don’t have much to compare it to though, since we still need to drive the Tacoma, 4Runner, and newer Jeep JL / Gladiator.
If you need a 4×4 with slightly higher clearance for rain or snow seasons and don’t necessarily off road difficult terrain, the Bronco is a clear sell.
THIRD TIME IS THE CHARM
This is my third off road industry update and I have to say that my industry predictions have been fairly spot on. The Fed reduced rates three times in 2024 at precisely the times that I wrote in my article released in January 2024. However, with sticky inflation due to presidential policies, spending, and job economics; home lending rates did not drop as expected. In fact, home mortgage rates increased between August and December in 2024.
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
Vehicle loan rates did get some reprieve in the later months and that is great news for off road manufacturers.
In the latter part of the year, we saw vehicle loan rates go from 7.9%~ to 7.5%~.
Locally, I am finding (at the time of writing this) newer loan rates between 5.94%-6.64%.
Are loan rates keeping you from upgrading to a newer vehicle? Write us in the comments.
ANOTHER YEAR IN DECLINE 2024
For the most part, new vehicle powersport sales declined when compared to last year sales. 2024 was a difficult year for powersports. Let’s look at some individually:
Toyota Tacoma
Toyota Tacoma sales declined every month except the last two this year.
Although the data is very promising; as rates decreased late in the year, demand rebounded.
Toyota 4Runner
The 4Runner had a strong first half, but faded in the second half. This is interesting data considering the newly designed model was released. I wonder if it is market reaction to the new design?? I personally like the 2025 redesign of the 4Runner and Lexus. The 4Runner did increase their pricing for the new model year so that also could be a major factor.
Ford Bronco
The Bronco decreased in sales in almost every month year over year in 2024.
Jeep Wrangler
Same with the Wrangler JL. Monthly sales numbers were lower for almost every month in 2024. However, sales of the Bronco and Wrangler were almost identical. Which means Ford is selling as many big Broncos as the mighty longstanding Jeep Wrangler.
Jeep Gladiator
All months had lower sales from their previous year. I am not sure why the Gladiator has such terrible sales. Much has been reported about the struggling Jeep Gladiator and I don’t have a firm understanding as to why. With the Max tow package, the Gladiator can tow more than our Suburban (7,700 lbs.) For a midsized truck, the Max tow package looks really appealing for a camping and traveling couple. The Toyota Tacoma and 4Runner can’t touch that rating, and neither can the Bronco. However, the Ford Ranger does go toe to toe, or should I say “TOW to TOW” with a 7,500 lb rating. If you stepped up to a larger pickup; Ford and Toyota both have trucks with much higher towing capacity. But for what it is, a compact truck, with 4×4 off road capability, and all season traversing prowess, I see the Gladiator as a great option.
Polaris Rzr // ORV
Polaris ORV sales were down 20%-26% in 2024 and not looking good.
BRP’s Can-Am
Across their Powersports brands in North America, BRPs sales were down 11%. However, inventory levels decreased by 22%, which the company celebrated on their latest press release.
Company wide, revenue decreased by 69.7%, and earnings decreased by 42.9%!
UNDERSTANDING
In 2024, the off road vehicle market was continuing to struggle with “persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and financially stressed consumers.”
CEO TROUBLES
Across the brands mentioned, we saw many president’s and CEOs step down or get fired. Steven D. Menneto, President of the Off Road division at Polaris Inc., announced his resignation effective July 19, 2024.
Bob Broderdorf took his new role as Jeep North America president on Oct 1st, just two months before CEO, Carlos Tavares, chief executive officer of Stellantis NV resigned early.
When there is tension in the C-suite and you’re making lots of money personally, it’s easy to say, “See ya!”
BANKRUPTCY
Along with the leadership shakeup, there were also businesses that got caught in financial woes. Largely the biggest story of the off road year was that Hoonigan (WheelPros) filed for bankruptcy and was acquired by an investment firm, Audax Private Equity. They also sold off 4 Wheel Parts to Off Road Warehouse. Pretty cool for Greg Adler and family!
THE POSITIVE SIDE
With persistent inflation aside, and the major presidential election behind us, the positive side is that (overall) most people have jobs and are making a (somewhat) livable income. In January 2024, unemployment hit a low of 3.4% and as we end the year (begin the new year) the unemployment rate is 4.2%. Job openings stand at 7.7 million and has eased from January. This is good news as people will continue to spend money on experiences and items that they want and need. Also, consumer confidence will continue to strengthen as the markets stabilize. Much of the economy turbulence of the last few years has been centered around political unrest.
2025 AND BEYOND: WHAT TO EXPECT
It should be really interesting to see how the markets respond to the changes President Trump will be making. From his campaign statements to his DOGE team, I have heard a variety of opinions on how all the changes will effect the economy. His statements on reducing energy prices seem promising along with the reduction of government spending. When the government pays down debt, and reduces spending / money printing… in general, it means that mortgage interest rates should go down. Additionally, with lower energy prices across the board it should reduce the price of goods sold to consumers, which will reduce inflation. Countering those facts, is the fact that people have jobs, and if prices are stabilized, if not, reduced, people will just consume and buy MORE. Which has a counter effect on pricing. (Good Old Supply and Demand)
I do not think the Fed will reduce interest rates much more in 2025, and thus the vehicle interest rates should hold steady in 2025. Home mortgage rates should hit 6% in 2025 which should fuel home sales and purchases as the home market has been sitting idle for some time. We might see mortgage rates as low as 5.8% in 2025, or competitive rates advertised lower if you buy points.
I see 2025 as a stabilizing year for the off road industry. We have had two years of declining sales and this year should be the bottom. My rationale is that if you bought a vehicle in 2020, although prices have increased considerably, you will probably be ready for something new in 2025. Most people don’t keep vehicles past 5 years, and like I mentioned above most people have a job with decent wage growth or opportunity growth in 2025. Interest rates and pricing should stabilize in 2025, and 6% interest rates will be the new normal. Long are the days of 0-3% interest rates.
Are you ready for a new off road vehicle? Let us know in the comments!
Have a wonderful 2025 off road year! From desert season, to mountain and camping season. Let’s make it the best yet!
We are Wheeled Lyfe Off-Road! An American off road brand that celebrates the ‘Wheeled Lyfe!’ Trails, Rigs, & the people who enjoy them! Inspiring offroading, preparing new enthusiasts, and protecting our trails!
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