The ten playing cards we predict Amex could refresh this 12 months — here is what to anticipate

You might have heard some rumors that American Express will significantly change 40 of its credit cards this year.

The news, as first reported by Doctor Of Credit, deserves scrutiny by fact-checking the claims. It also helps to look at what Amex has done in the past to accurately predict how it’ll likely change other products this year.

So, let’s get ahead of the game by digging into Amex’s plans for 2024, identifying the cards most likely to be shaken up and predicting what the changes might entail.

Is Amex really refreshing 40 cards this year?

First, a “refresh” of a card by American Express usually involves more than just a new look or a slight modification. Instead, history has shown that these refreshes usually include more substantive changes, like:

• An increase in the annual fee
• New statement credits and perks
• Added restrictions to existing benefits, such as lounge access

So, how many cards is it planning to refresh this year?

In Amex’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call in late January 2024, CEO and Chairman Steve Squeri said, “We have committed to refreshing 40 products this year,” adding, “We look at refreshing all of our products on a sort of three to four year basis.”

Later, he clarified that Amex plans to “refresh around 40 products globally.”

There are two important words to focus on here:

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• “Products”: Reading through the call transcript, Squeri talked about not only credit cards but also Amex’s other products like loans and banking accounts, so credit cards may make up only a portion of the total.
• “Globally”: This includes both products offered to U.S. cardmembers as well as those offered in other countries.

For the sake of this analysis, let’s assume that all 40 product refreshes are of credit cards (which is unlikely). Given that the U.S. is by far American Express’ biggest market, accounting for almost half of all cards issued by the company, you can conclude that 20 of those products are U.S. credit cards.

In reality, I expect 17-20 American Express cards to be refreshed in 2024. Six of the seven Delta Air Lines cards underwent a refresh in early February, leaving at least 11 remaining. I’ve compiled the list below based on the current annual fees charged and how recently they were last refreshed (or launched).

Of the 17 Amex personal credit cards available to new applicants, I expect the following six to be top candidates for a refresh this year:

And of the 14 business cards, the following four:

The information for the Amex EveryDay Preferred, American Express Green and Business Green Rewards cards have been collected independently by The Points Guy. The card details on this page have not been reviewed or provided by the card issuer.

That’s 10 additional cards beyond the six Delta ones — though there may also be changes to the issuer’s corporate card lineup or the addition of new products within existing card families.

Note that the American Express® Business Gold Card and Hilton cards underwent refreshes in October 2023. The Marriott lineup was last refreshed in September 2022, but I think those cards could be shaken up again (the Bevy was a new card launched in 2022 and has had a terrible value proposition from the start, so I hope it gets some love).

We haven’t seen many changes to no-annual-fee cards recently, except for new card designs, so I’ve omitted them from this list.

It seems that $150 is the new $95-$99, as we’ve seen with the Hilton Honors American Express Surpass® Card‘s annual fee increase from $95 to $150 (see rates and fees). The EveryDay Preferred, Blue Cash Preferred, Business Green Rewards and Hilton Business cards will probably see increases to this mark (see rates and fees for the Blue Cash Preferred and Hilton Business).

The Amex Green card doesn’t sit comfortably in any tier, so I think a bump from $150 to $195-$250 makes sense — depending on the added perks it gets.

Moving onto mid-tier cards, $350-$375 is the new $250-$295. In February, the Delta SkyMiles® Platinum American Express Card‘s annual fee increased from $250 to $350 (see rates and fees), and the Amex Business Gold’s increased from $295 to $375 (see rates and fees). Therefore, I predict the annual fees on the Amex Gold, Marriott Bevy and Plum cards to increase to $350 this year (see rates and fees for the Amex Gold, Bevy and Plum).

And on the premium end, we’ve seen the Hilton Honors American Express Aspire Card annual fee jump from $450 to $550 (see rates and fees), and the top-tier Delta cards increase from $550 to $650.

So, can we expect the $695 annual fees on the Platinum cards (see rates and fees for the personal and business versions) to increase even further? I don’t think so. Amex is facing stiff competition from other issuers in the premium cards space, so I think it’ll refresh other components of these products rather than their annual fees.

The information for the Hilton Aspire card has been collected independently by The Points Guy. The card details on this page have not been reviewed or provided by the card issuer.

More statement credits

American Express is the king of transforming credit cards into coupon books.

You can usually more than justify an annual fee increase by fully maximizing the included statement credits. However, it takes time and energy to do so, and even people who work in this industry full time, like the team here at TPG, find it laborious. (This monthly checklist can help you, though.)

You’re not alone; the comments on this Reddit thread on the topic made me chuckle:

Given the dining focus of the Amex Gold and the fact American Express owns Resy, I could see it adding a monthly Resy credit to this card, as it has done with the Delta cards. Enrollment is required for certain benefits.

Lounge access restrictions

Just like the Hilton cards did away with Priority Pass lounge access, I predict the Marriott Brilliant will lose access to the lounge network this year.

Furthermore, limits to guesting privileges at Centurion lounges were introduced in February 2023, and new limits to Delta Sky Club access for those holding the Amex Platinum and Delta SkyMiles® Reserve American Express Card come into effect in February 2025.

To reduce crowding as well as costs to the issuer, Amex may introduce a similar policy of restricting cardmember and guest access at Priority Pass lounges. Currently, Platinum cardmembers receive unlimited access to Priority Pass lounges and can bring two guests for free.

Using the Centurion and Sky Club limits as a guide, I could see Amex introducing a yearly cap on visits to Priority Pass lounges and charging for guests — unless you spent at least $75,000 on your Platinum card in the previous calendar year.

New elite status benefits

The ranks of elite members of Hertz’s Gold Plus Rewards program are swelling, with a push to give mid-tier cardmembers complimentary Five Star status and premium cardmembers top-tier President’s Circle status.*

However, as more people move up the ranks, elite status becomes less elite, so expect longer queues in priority check-in lanes and more competition for car upgrades.

*Enrollment in the Hertz Gold Plus Rewards Program is required

Spend your way to status

Loyalty programs want frequent flyers to become frequent spenders, so they are redesigning their elite status requirements to reward high levels of spending.

With Delta’s shift to Medallion Qualification Dollars as the sole metric for qualification, Platinum and Reserve cardmembers receive a 2,500-MQD boost at the start of the year and can earn 1 MQD for every $10-$20 spent ongoing (depending on which card they have).

The Marriott Bonvoy Bevy and Brilliant cards already bestow Gold and Platinum status (enrollment required) and give cardmembers 15 and 25 elite night credits for holding the card, respectively. The current structure for Marriott status relies solely on staying a certain number of nights to qualify. Could Marriott Bonvoy cardmembers get a way to spend to reach higher status tiers?

Moving away from cobranded cards: Platinum and Business Platinum cardmembers currently receive complimentary Hilton and Marriott Gold status (enrollment required). Could they be incentivized to spend their way to higher status levels?

Perhaps we could also see Gold and Green cardmembers receiving complimentary Silver status with both hotel programs (even though it’s not overly valuable).

New spending categories

Amex business cards are more likely to receive new opportunities to earn bonus points in select categories. Transit purchases are a common recent addition.

The Business Gold has added transit and monthly wireless telephone services made directly from U.S. service providers (while taking away shipping and airfare purchased directly from airlines). Select Delta cards have added transit, shipping, advertising and purchases of more than $5,000 as bonus-earning categories.

Meanwhile, the Hilton Surpass has added U.S. online retail purchases.

One major opportunity here involves the Platinum card, which has just one bonus category (airfare purchases and prepaid hotels booked through amextravel.com). The issuer could really enhance its value proposition compared to its two main competitors — the Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card and Chase Sapphire Reserve® — by adding more bonus categories in popular spending categories like general travel, dining and gas.

Here at TPG, we are in the loop of any news of card refreshes and provide advice on what to do if you have one of the cards affected, as we recently did for existing Delta cardmembers.

While annual fee increases and the removal of certain benefits can be frustrating, I would advise against a knee-jerk reaction to cancel your card. Rather, wait until your next annual fee posts; then, you can ask Amex for a retention offer, which might make it worth keeping the card for another year. If you no longer want your card, consider downgrading it to a card with no annual fee or a lower annual fee, thereby protecting your credit score.

If you’re looking to pick up a new card, Amex has typically launched a lucrative limited-time welcome offer at the same time it refreshes a card. Just be aware of the increasingly restrictive card family application restrictions.

It’s worth pointing out that these annual fee increases have been happening during a period of stubbornly high inflation. However, that doesn’t account for the entirety of the changes. For example, the Amex Platinum has seen its annual fee increase from $450 in 2017 to $550 in 2021 to its current $695 price tag (see rates and fees). That’s about a 55% increase over the past seven years compared to the consumer price index increasing by just half of that amount (27%).

Nevertheless, for those who keep their Amex cards, you’ll often come out on top if you put in the time and energy to maximize new statement credits and benefits — meaning a card refresh could actually be good news in the end.

Read more: Our 2024 credit card predictions: Higher fees, lower interest rates and superior technology

For rates and fees of the Amex Gold card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Amex Platinum card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Blue Cash Preferred card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Business Gold card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Business Platinum card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Delta Platinum card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Hilton Aspire card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Hilton Business card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Hilton Surpass card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Marriott Bevy card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Plum card, click here.